I am a PhD candidate in Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University. For those of you that don’t know what Management Science is, think optimization, building quantitative models to analyze and improve decision making. My thesis focuses on Prediction and Optimal Decision Making in Baseball, and for the last couple of years I have been building models to analyze decision making and predict results for major league baseball games.
I’ll get into the gritty details of the models later, (and there are a lot of them), but right now I just wanted to throw out some entirely premature projections before the 2008 season gets under way.
I plan to update these projections both as I add more features to the model and as the season progresses. I also plan to add a lot more projections and analysis. In the next week, I will use these projections to evaluate the probability of each team making the playoffs and winning the World Series.
If you want more info about my methods or would like to comment on anything, please feel free to contact me at null at stanford dot edu.