2008 MLB Projections

2008 Projected MLB Standings

team W L
CLE 87.93 74.07
DET 87.88 74.12
CHA 83.20 78.80
MIN 76.62 85.38
KC 62.23 99.77

NYY 95.53 66.47
BOS 91.00 71.00
TOR 89.04 72.96
TAM 73.90 88.10
BAL 72.84 89.16

SEA 82.41 79.59
OAK 82.30 79.70
LAA 78.76 83.24
TEX 76.32 85.68

MIL 84.37 77.63
CHC 83.62 78.38
STL 82.30 79.70
HOU 80.45 81.55
CIN 77.59 84.41
PIT 71.24 90.76

NYM 89.69 72.31
ATL 88.77 73.23
PHI 85.77 76.23
FLA 69.09 92.91
WAS 66.80 95.20

LAD 87.64 74.36
SDG 85.71 76.29
COL 80.26 81.74
ARI 79.31 82.69
SFO 77.44 84.56

These projections are based on a Markov Chain model that estimated the probability of every team winning every game based upon projected starting lineups. Based upon results using prior years, the estimated standard deviation of these projections is +/- 8.5 wins. So you can see that there are several divisions that are up for grabs.

There are a lot of caveats I could throw in here. But the biggest ones are that the current analysis does not account for relievers, bullpens, or the relative value of a team’s prospects. Thus, if a team has better than average subs and/or better than average prospects expected to contribute heavily, that team is likely to do better than we project here.

Nonetheless, most of these projections seem to pass the sniff test. The biggest eye opener is the Angels at 79 wins. In the previous 3 datasets, the Angels are the one team that consistently outperformed this model, and most people think they should do it again. I don't know yet if it is because they have great subs and relievers, a great farm system, or just consistently do better than past performance would indicate. But hopefully over the next few weeks I'll be able to figure that out.